The old king is dying, the new king is yet to come, hybrid cars are your best choice for now.

The first automobile, which emerged in 1881, was powered by electricity; conversely, the first fuel-powered vehicle, equipped with an internal combustion engine and named the Benz Patent-Motorwagen, made its debut in 1886.

Historically, fuel-powered vehicles have held a commanding market share for over a century. However, as we approach 2025, the lifecycle of internal combustion engine vehicles appears to be drawing to a close, indicating that it may no longer be prudent to invest in such automobiles.

More Jolts in AT

Automatic transmissions (AT) represent a pivotal component of contemporary vehicles. The increasingly stricter environmental regulations has asked for not only enhancements in engine fuel efficiency, but also significant improvements in transmission efficiency.

Recent observations indicate that today’s 8-speed and 9-speed ATs are more prone to jolt. In earlier models, AT predominantly employed torque converters for power transmission. Although this configuration was less fuel-efficient, it seldom resulted in jolting issues, a characteristic notably found in the initial Toyota RAV4 and Corolla equipped with 4-speed AT.

Currently, in response to the demand for better fuel economy mandated by environmental regulations, ATs are compelled to minimize the operational duration of torque converters. Contemporary AT engages the torque converter lock-up at speeds as low as 20 km/h, establishing a fixed connection between the transmission and the engine, thereby enhancing overall transmission efficiency. For instance, the 9-speed transmission featured in the Benz C-Class (W205) can achieve an impressive transmission efficiency of up to 92%.

Nevertheless, this shift presents an obvious challenge: in conditions of traffic congestion, rapid acceleration and deceleration can precipitate significant jolting issues, thereby severely undermining the esteemed reputation of the Benz C-Class.

To address the issue of jolting, Mercedes has incorporated a 48V mild hybrid system, which effectively employs a more robust starter motor to supplement the engine's power output, thereby minimizing jolting.

As we navigate through an era of increasingly rigorous environmental regulations, how much longer can AT endure the evolving demands of the automotive landscape? This remains a critical inquiry.

Shorter and shorter life of 12V lead-acid batteries

The challenges confronting AT are mirrored by the conventional fuel vehicles' 12V lead-acid batteries.

In recent years, automotive manufacturers have enhanced vehicles with larger displays, millimeter-wave radar, advanced cameras, massage seating, and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication systems...

Consequently, the strain on 12V lead-acid batteries has increased significantly due to more and more power-consuming devices, resulting in a pronounced reduction in their operational lifespan. Batteries that once required replacement after approximately seven years now necessitate replacement in as little as three years within new models.

The substantial volume of discarded lead-acid batteries additionally poses serious environmental pollution risks, prompting European legislation that mandates the discontinuation of lead-acid batteries in all new vehicles by 2030.

In parallel, automobile manufacturers are proactively seeking to eliminate lead-acid batteries from their designs. Tesla has entirely removed 12V lead-acid batteries across its entire product range; BYD plans to phase out them commencing in 2024; meanwhile, Hyundai has adopted an innovative approach by integrating the 12V battery into the power battery of the Ioniq model.

PEVs May Not Emerge as the Preferred Choice for the Majority

Pure electric vehicles may fall short of fulfilling the critical attribute of being "ready to go at any moment"; while they generally allow an easy-go, certain scenarios can prove otherwise.

Consider a situation where someone experiences a heated disagreement with the spouse and wants to leave for the evening. If the electric vehicle is depleted of charge, one find themselves ensnared in the argument while awkwardly connecting the vehicle to a charging station.

Even in instances where a high-powered fast charging station is accessible at home, one may still need to endure a long period of arguing, as recharging the battery from 20% to 80% typically consumes approximately half an hour.

The long charging duration means more time in vehicle management, which stands in opposition to the fundamental attributes that consumers expect from automobiles—purchasing a vehicle is intended to improve one’s quality of life, rather than impose additional burdens related to vehicle maintenance. Therefore, PEVs may be best suited to a small group of automobile enthusiasts who possess immediate access to charging facilities at home.

Some Countries Face Electricity Insufficiency Issues

From a macro perspective, PEV itself is not suitable for large-scale user market. Akio Toyoda has said that considerable regions lack the electrical infrastructure necessary to accommodate substantial numbers of electric vehicles, elucidating why electric vehicle sales are lower than 30%.

While Norway and Sweden have achieved electric vehicle sales exceeding 30%, it is important to note that they possess exceptionally high per capita electricity generation, with Sweden generating 1360 kWh and Norway generating 2810 kWh per capita.

Conversely, although China boasts significant sales and production figures for PEVs, the annual market share remains at only 28.5%. Also, the average monthly per capita electricity consumption in China stands at 522 kWh, indicating only a modest surplus. Other Asian countries exhibit the following per capita electricity generation figures: Japan at 708.67 kWh, South Korea at 987.5 kWh, Vietnam at 235 kWh, Malaysia at 431 kWh, and Thailand at 214 kWh.

The statistics might appear too abstract. Let’s give an example of air conditioning usage. If an individual runs an air conditioning unit for 6 to 8 hours each night, the monthly electricity consumption would amount to approximately 180 kWh to 240 kWh.

A fully charged electric vehicle typically consumes around 50 kWh of electricity per charge, representing a single night’s use. If the vehicle requires recharging four times a month, it may consume around 200 kWh.

Simple calculations show that the monthly per capita electricity production in Vietnam and Thailand is not sufficient to support large-scale electric vehicle charging (barely enough for one person to run air conditioning for a month), not to mention the extensive construction of charging stations throughout these regions.

The Market Has Already Indicated a Preference

From an industry standpoint, despite the advocacy for pure electric vehicles by numerous countries, Toyota, the most successful automaker globally, stands as a prominent opponent of this trend.

In early 2024, the financial report revealed that Toyota's operating profit and net profit for the third quarter of 2023 increased by 75.7% and 86.5% respectively. On one hand, this was due to the depreciation of the yen, and on the other hand, it was due to the strong sales of hybrid electric vehicles.

Therefore, Toyota proactively increased payments to 400 suppliers within Japan. Furthermore, during the "Shunto" (spring labor negotiation) with Japanese labor unions, Toyota agreed to the wage increases advocated by the unions, resulting in the most substantial salary augmentation in 25 years. Employees of Toyota could see their salaries rise by as much as 28,440 yen per month, while the bonus structure has been elevated from a remuneration equivalent to 6.7 months' salary to 7.6 months.

On the other hand, Toyota's principal competitor, Volkswagen, has aggressively introduced the ID series of pure electric vehicles, yet this initiative necessitated the laying off of 35,000 employees, including those based in Germany, and the company is contemplating the closure of factories within Germany.

I am not opposing PEVs. Instead, I contend that the governments is overly hasty, striving to meet environmental objectives while accidentally overlooking people’s real needs.

For consumers, hybrid vehicles currently represent the optimal choice. Hybrids facilitate a simplification of transmission structures, reducing the complex 9-speed and 10-speed ATs to 3-speed, 2-speed, or even single-speed configurations. This design minimizes issues associated with dual-clutch or AT jolting, resulting in a more direct power delivery compared to CVT, ultimately enhancing the driving experience.

Besides, the electric motor and internal combustion engine complement one another effectively. The engine is particularly efficient during high-speed driving, operating optimally over prolonged distances, while the electric motor excels in low-speed conditions, delivering high torque to assist with vehicle starting.

Conclusion

In China, over 20 million new vehicles are sold annually, with more than 50% comprising plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). If hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are considered, this proportion increases even further. Consequently, traditional fuel vehicles have experienced a significant decline in market dominance, particularly in China, which is recognized as one of the largest automobile consumer markets globally. Remarkably, this transformation has occurred rapidly—within a mere four years.

For those plan to buy a fuel vehicle intended for a decade-long use, it is important to note that by the fourth year, the availability of parts for repairs may become substantially limited. On the other hand, pure electric vehicles necessitate considerable social infrastructure support. Until such infrastructure is fully developed, hybrid vehicles may continue to represent the most viable option for consumers.